Event pawimawhte leh market-a nghawng an neih dan
Company leh a chheh vêla thil thleng pawimawh bikte chauh ngaihtuah chunga trade lâk emaw, investment kalpui chu a fel tâwk lo thei. Hei hi a chhan chu, ram chhung economy te, khawvel politics inlumleh dan te, hripui leng te, khuarel chhiatna leh thil dang hrang hrang te hian stocks leh market chet vel dan hi a hril thui ve hle a. Chutianga company piah lama market khawhawi leh sukthlêk tidanglam thei thil thlengte chu hriat a pawimawh hle.
He zirlaiah hian market nghawng thei thil thleng ṭhin langsar zualte leh stock market-a nghawng an neih dante kan zir dawn a ni.
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy chu Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in interest rate control-in ram chhûnga pawisa lêng vel a thununna hmanraw chi khat a ni. India ramah hian RBI hi central bank a ni a. Chutiang bawkin ram dangah pawh interest rate bituk hna chu a ram central bank-te ṭheuh mawhphurhna a ni. Entir nan, Europe-ah European Central Bank leh US-ah Federal Reserves-te hi. Central Bank-te chuan ram chhunga pawisa che vêl control nan interest rate chu an tidanglam hret ṭhin.
Interest rate siam a nih hian RBI chuan hmasawnna (growth) leh thil man sang (inflation) inbûk tâwk thei ang ber tura a duan a ṭul a. A awmzia berah chuan, interest rate a san chuan pawisa pûknaa chawi tur a lo pung a (hei hi sumdawnna lian tham din/corporation tân a ni zual bik). Corporate-in awlsam taka pawisa an pûk theih loh chuan an ṭhang duang thei lo va. Corporate ṭhan a ṭhut chuan ram economy hmasawnna a muang ve leh ta ṭhin a ni.
A lehlam zawnga thlir ve thung chuan, interest rate a hniam chuan corporation leh consumer-te tân pawisa puk a lo awlsam a. Ram chhunga pawisa lêng vel a titam a, chu chuan thil man a tisang a, inflation a lo awm ta ṭhin a ni.
Growth leh inflation inbûk tâwk tur chuan ram chhung sum leh pai dinhmun khawih thei thil zawng zawngte chhut chungin RBI chuan rate hrang hrangte chu a siam a ṭul ta a. Heng rate kan sawi turte hi a inbuk tâwk loh chuan ram economy-in a tuar phah ṭhin a ni. Chung rate pawimawh tak takte chu:
Repo Rate – Bank-te chuan RBI hnenah pawisa an pûk thei a. RBI-in bank dangte hnena pawisa a pûktirna rate chu Repo Rate tiin sawi a ni. Repo rate a san chuan pawisa pûkna rate a sang a, sum che vêl a titlem a, hmasawnna a muang ṭhin. RBI website atangin repo rate thar ber (leh rate dangte) hi en theih reng a ni. RBI-in repo rate a tihsân hian ram hmasawnnain a tawrh ṭhin avangin market chuan repo rate sang hi a duh lo hle.
Reverse Repo Rate – RBI-in bank dangte hnen aṭanga pawisa a pûkna rate a ni. Sawi dan dangah chuan bank-in RBI-a pawisa a dah hian RBI chuan deposit rate a siam ṭhin a, chu chu Reverse Repo tih a ni. Bank-in RBI hnena pawisa a dah hian a mamawh hunah la chhuak leh duh ta se, RBI chuan lâk chhuah a duh hunah a pe chhuak thei dawn tih a chiang a; chuvangin deposit rate hi a hniam ṭhin hle. Bank-in corporate liante puktir lovin RBI-a pawisa a dah hian bank-a pawisa che vêl a tlem phah sawt ṭhin. Reverse repo rate sang hian ram chhunga sum lêng vêl a tihtlêm avangin ram economy tan thil duhawm tak a ni lem lo. A chang chuan central bank chuan policy siamin bank-te chu amaha pawisa tam zawk deposit turin thu a chhuah ṭhin a; hei pawh hi ram chhunga pawisa lêng vêl tam lutuk control-na hmanraw chi khat a ni.
Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) – Bank tinte chuan RBI-ah pawisa deposit an nei ngei ngei tur a ni. An dah zat tur chu CRR azir a ni ang. CRR a san chuan ram chhunga pawisa lêng vêl a tlem phah a, ram economy tan thil ṭha a ni lem lo.
Monetary policy committee member-te chu ram sum leh pai dinhmun thlithlai tur leh rates-te rel fel tur hian an ṭhu khawm ṭhin a; chuvangin trader chuan monetary policy thuchhuak ngaihchân reng chu a tihmâkmawh a ni. Rates tihdanglam a nih avanga sector hrang hrang zinga che nasa (a hloh zâwngin emaw, a hlâwk zâwngin emaw) ber stocks (interest rate-sensitive stocks) te chu – banks, automobiles, housing finance, real estate, metals leh a dangte an ni.
Inflation
Inflation chu hun eng emawti chhunga bungraw hlutna man sang chho zel hi a ni. Inflation sang zel chuan pawisa hlutna a tihniam ṭhin. Entir nan, purûn sen kg 1 hi ₹15 aṭangin ₹20-ah chho ta se, thil dang zawng chu lo dah ṭha ta ila, purûn sen man sânna chu inflation vang a ni kan ti thei ang. Inflation hi pumpelh theih a ni lo va, chutih rualin inflation rate sâng lutuk chuan harsatna a thlen theih avangin ram economy tân a duhawm loh a. Inflation rate a sân chuan market-ah thil duhawm lo lam thleng tur hrilhlâwknaa ngaih a ni. Sawrkar leh RBI chuan inflation tihniam tur hian an thawk ṭhin. Inflation chu index hmanga teh ṭhin a ni a. Inflation index chu percentage eng emaw zâta a chho a nih chuan inflation a sang chho tih a entir a. Chutiang bawkin index a tlâk chuan inflation a ziaawm tih a entir thung.
Inflation indices hi chi 2 a awm a – Wholesale Price Index (WPI) leh Consumer Price Index (CPI) te an ni.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) – WPI chuan wholesale level-a bungraw lei leh hralh chungchanga a man chêt dan/inthlâk danglam dan a entir. WPI hi inflation chhûtna awlsam leh ṭangkai tak a ni a. WPI-ah chuan inflation chu bungraw hlâwma pe chhuak chin aṭanga teh ṭhin a ni a, consumer (a mala lei ṭhin) level-a thil man inthlâk dan a entir lo.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – CPI-ah erawh chuan retail level-a thil man inthlâk dânin nghawng a neih dân a entir ve thung. Consumer tan chuan CPI inflation hi a pawimawh zawk. CPI chhûtnaah chuan rural leh urban area-a mipuiin thil an lei dan chu category leh subcategory hrang hranga ṭhenin chipchiar taka chhût ṭhin a ni. Category tinte chu index hrang hranga thliar hran leh an ni a, index hrang hrangte chuan CPI index chu a siam ta ṭhin a ni. CPI hian inflation-in nitina chhungkaw mamawh thlai leh thei te, cereal lam chi te, petrol leh diesel thlenga nghawng a neih dan a entir a ni.
CPI buatsaih hna hi a khirhin a hautak mai bâkah zir chianna hi an uluk hle a. Economy tehna pawimawh berte zinga mi a ni. Ram chhûng huapa statistical agency lian, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) chuan thla tin chawlhkâr hnihna velah CPI hi a tichhuak ṭhin a ni. Interest rate leh inflation inbûk tâwk tûra hmalak hi RBI tan chona lian tak a tling a. A tlangpuiin interest rate a hniam chuan thil man a lo to a, inflation a thleng ṭhin; interest rate sang chuan inflation a tihniam ve thung bawk.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) chu hun rei vak lo chhunga ram chhung industrial sector ṭhan dân entirtu a ni. He data hi (inflation data a chunga kan sawi tâk nen khan) Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) chuan thla tin a tichhuak ṭhin a. IIP chuan India rama industrial sector-ten bungrua an siam chhuah zât a chhût ṭhin a, IIP data hmasa behchhanin (reference point-a hmangin) buatsaih ṭhin a ni. Tunah hian India chuan 2022-2023 data chu reference point-ah a hmang mek a ni. Reference point hi base year an ti bawk.
Ram chhunga industry hrang hrang 15 velin an bungraw siam chhuah zat (production data) chu ministry-ah an theh lut a, ministry chuan chûng data chu la khawmin index number-in a tlangzarh ṭhin a ni. IIP a pun chuan industrial sector-in hmasawnna a hmu (bungraw siam chhuah zat a pung) tih a entir a, market leh economy tan chanchin lawmawm a ni. IIP a tlak hniam erawh chuan industrial sector chu bungraw siam chhuah lamah a hnufual a, market leh economy tan chanchin lawmawm loh a ni thung.
A tlângkawm nan, industrial sector-a bungraw siam chhuah zat lama hmasawnna chu ram economy tan a ṭha a; a tlak hniam erawh chuan economy ṭhang mek a timuang a, thil duhawm loh a ni thung. India ramah industrial sector-in hma a sâwn zel lai hian Index of Industrial Production pawimawhna pawh hi a pung chho zel a ni.
IIP number hniam hian RBI chu interest rate tihniama, industrial sector-in awlsam zawka pawisa an pûk theih nana pui turin a nawr ṭhin a ni.
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) chu ram chhunga manufacturing sector leh service sector-ten sumdawnnaa hma an sâwn dan entirtu, economy dinhmun tar langtu a ni. PMI-ah chuan survey hmangin zir chianna neih ṭhin a ni a, survey chhângtute – a tlangpuiin purchasing manager-te (sumdawnnain a mamawh raw materials lei lama hotute) – aṭangin thla liam ta nena khaikhina sumdawnnain danglamna a hmuh dân lâk khawm ṭhin a ni. Service sector leh manufacturing sector-te tan survey hi a hran ve vea kalpui a ni a. Survey aṭanga data lâk khawmte chu index pakhatah chhun fin an ni. He survey-in a huam tlangpuite chu business-in order thar an neih zat te, an thil siam chhuah zat tam leh tlem dan te, an sumdawnna huang chhunga thil lo thleng tura an beisei dan te leh hnathawk an lâk dan te a ni.
PMI number hi a tlangpuiin 50 velah a awm ber a. 50 chung lam a hawlh kai chuan economy a ṭhanga ngaih a ni a, 50 hnuai lama a awm chuan economy a tla hniam tih a entir thung. 50-ah chiah a awm chuan economy-ah danglamna engmah a thlen lo tih a entir bawk.
Budget Session
Budget Session-ah chuan Ministry of Finance ṭhu khawmin ram sum leh pai hman dan chungchang chipchiar takin an khelho ṭhin a ni. Ministry aiawhin Finance Minister-in mipui hmaah budget chu a pharh ṭhin. Session neih chhung hian sawrkarin policy thar a duante leh economy hmasawnna tura ruahmanna a siamte chu puan ṭhin a ni a, hei hian market-a industry hrang hrangte kal danah nghawng lian tak a nei ṭhin. Chuvangin budget hian ram economy-ah hmun pawimawh tak a luah a ni.
Kan thusawi tihchian nan tûn hnaia thil thleng hi lo en ta ila, budget thar berah khan sawrkarin meizial man atanga chhiah a lak chu a tihsan rin a ni a. Beisei ang ngeiin sawrkar chuan meizial atanga chhiah a lak chu a tisâng ta ngei a, meizial man pawh a lo to ta sawt a ni. Meizial man tihsân hian nghawng a neih ṭhenkhat chu:
- Meizial zuten a man a to tâk avangin an lei loh phah (hei hi sawi zui theih tak tur a ni). Hei vang hian meizial siamtu company, ITC ang chite chu an share hlutna a tlâk phah a. Share hlutna tla hniam avang hian investor ṭhenkhat chuan ITC share chu an hralh duh mai thei.
- Market participant-ten ITC share chu hralh ta se, market index-ah ITC chu stock bûk rit ber pawl a nih avangin market chu a tla ang.
Budget tlangzarhin a nghawngte avang hian ITC share chu 3.5% zetin a tla hniam ta a ni.
Budget session hi kum tin neih ṭhin a ni a, February thla chawlhkâr hnuhnung berah pharh ṭhin a ni. Sawrkârna inthlâk leh thil dang eng emaw bik a awm chuan budget pharh hun hi tihkhawtlâi a ni thei bawk.
Corporate Earnings Announcement
Corporate hovin sum an lak luh dante mipui hriat tura an pho chhuah hun hi corporate earnings season tih a ni a, hun pawimawh tak niin an sum lak luh dan azirin stocks a che ṭhin. Stock exchange-a in-list company-te chuan thla thum dan zelah an sum lak luh zat leh hlawkna an hmuh dante chu an puang ziah tur a ni a, hei hi 'quarterly earnings numbers' tiin an sawi bawk. Earnings announcement-ah chuan company chuan a hnathawh dan chu mipui hriat turin a tlangzarh ṭhin:
- Revenue ṭhan dan
- Sum an hman ral dan tlangpui
- Leiba atanga chawina
- Profit hmuh dan tlangpui
- Project hmachhawp leh project kal lai meka hma an sawn dante
- Industry chhunga thil thleng langsarte
Heng bakah hian company ṭhenkhat chuan hun lo la awm tur atana company hnathawh dan tur leh sum an lak luh zat turte an lo chhut lâwkna chu an puangzar bawk ṭhin. Hei hi 'corporate guidance' tiin an sawi.
Infosys Limited hi company lian leh ngelnghet tawhte zinga khel lova quarterly announcement tichhuak hmasa ber ṭhin an ni a. Guidance pawh an pe chhuak fo bawk. Infosys-in guidance a pek chhuah hian market-ah nghawng a nei lian ṭhin hle a, chuvangin market participants-te chuan an thuchhuah hi an ngaichang reng ṭhin.
A hnuaia table-ah hian India rama quarterly earnings season kalpui dan tlangpui tar lan a ni:
| Sl. No | Months | Quarter | Result Announcement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | April to June | Quarter 1 (Q1) | 1st week of July |
| 02 | July to September | Quarter 2 (Q2) | 1st week of Oct |
| 03 | October to December | Quarter 3 (Q3) | 1st week of Jan |
| 04 | January to March | Quarter 4 (Q4) | 1st week of April |
Kan hriat reng tur chu April ni 1 hi India rama financial year inṭan hun a ni. US-ah erawh chuan financial year hi January ni 1 atanga chhiar ṭan a nih avangin quarter hmasa ber chu January to March a ni thung.
Company-in quarterly earnings (thla 3 chhunga sum a hâi luh zat) a puan hian market participant-te chuan company quarterly earnings hmuh zat tura an lo rin lâwk dan nen an khaikhin ṭhin a. He an lo rin lâwkna hi 'street expectation' tih a ni.
Company sum hai luh zat chu street expectation aia a san zawk chuan stock man a pung ṭhin a. Street expectation aia company sum hai luh zat a tlem erawh chuan stock man a tla hniam ve thung.
Street expectation chu sum hai luh zat nen a intluk chuan participant-te chawk phûr thei tur thil thleng a awm lem loh avangin stock man chu a che ngai vak lo thung a, san lam aiin tlak lam a hnaih zawk fo ṭhin.
Non-Financial events
A chunga kan sawi tâkte bakah khian sum leh pai nena inzawm kher lo thil thleng theite hmuh thiama, market an nghawng theih dan te hriatthiam a pawimawh bawk ang. Entir nan, Kum 2020-a Covid hripui leng khan khawvel ram hrang hrang economy-ah nghawng lian tak a nei a, khawvel economic order a tibuai a. Ram leh ram indawr tawnna supply chain-in a tuar a, chu chuan bungraw man a tihsân phah vak a ni. Chutiang a nih lai chuan industry ṭhenkhat, a bikin online service industry-te chu an ṭhang duang hle thung.
Chutiang bawkin Russia-Ukraine war te, China-Taiwan inkar boruak te pawhin khawvel puma market-te chu a nghawng thui hle bawk. Ram hrang hrang inkar politics hian an thawhpui ramte thlengin nghawng a nei ṭhin. Entir nan, Russia-Ukraine war chuan natural gas leh crude oil-a insumdawn tawnna a tihbuai avangin Europe rama gas leh oil man chu nasa takin a tihsan phah a ni.
Active trader emaw, market participants emaw tan chuan heng non-financial event-te hi thlithlaia, market-ah eng angin nge nghawng an neih theih tih hriatthiam a pawimawh hle ang.
Ram hrang hrang economy-te hi a inkungkaih kual vek kan tih rual hian, ram bung hrang pakhat chhunga thil thleng chuan chumi ram economy chauh chu a nghawng ve bawk. Entir nan, India rama inthlanpui (election) kan neih hian India ram economy chauh a nghawng a ni.
Chuvangin, non-financial events kan tihte hi ngaihven rengin, stock market leh sector/industry bik chhungah eng angin nge nghawng an neih theih tih thlithlai ve reng chu a ṭul a ni.
He zirlai aṭanga kan zir pawimawh ṭhenkhat te
- Thil thleng hrang hrang avangin market leh stocks a che ṭhin a. Chung thil thlengten nghawng a neih theih dan chhût thiam tura hriatna neih chu market participants-te tan a pawimawh hle.
- Monetary policy hi economic event pawimawh berte zinga mi a ni. Monetary policy-ah chuan repo, reverse repo, CRR leh a dangtea rate kalpui mek ennawnna leh rawtnate sawiho ṭhin a ni.
- Interest rate leh inflation hi thil kal kawp tlat a ni. Interest rate sang chuan inflation a tiziaawm ṭhin; chutiang bawkin interest rate hniamin inflation a tisang ṭhin.
- MOSPI-in thla tin inflation data a tlangzarh ṭhin. Consumer i nih angin CPI inflation data chu i en ber tur a ni.
- IIP chuan industrial sector bika bungraw siam chhuah zât tam leh tlem dan a teh ber. IIP a chhoh chuan market tan a lawmawm a, IIP tlahniam erawh a duhawm loh thung.
- PMI chu survey hmanga sumdawnnain hma a sawn dan zir chianna a ni. PMI number chu 50 bâwr velah a awm tlangpui a. 50 chung lam a thlen chuan market a chho a. 50 hnuai lamah chuan market a tla thung.
- Budget chu market event pawimawh tak a ni a; policy kalpui mek siam ṭhatna leh a thar tlangzarhnate neih ṭhin a ni. Budget pharh a nih hian stocks leh market chu nasa takin an che ṭhin.
- Thla thum danah corporate earnings puan ṭhin a ni. Corporate earnings-a stocks chet chhan ber chu company-in a sum lak luh zat leh street expectation inan loh vang a ni.
- Sum leh pai chungchang ni kher lo, chhan dang vanga thil thlengte (non-financial events) pawh ngunthlûk taka vil reng tur a ni; eng tiangin nge market chet dan an nghawng theih tihte pawh hriat a ṭha ang.
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